Incerteza Epistêmica
Epistêmica uncertainty is a type of uncertainty that arises from incomplete knowledge or information about a system, model, or process. Unlike aleatory uncertainty, which is related to inherent variability and randomness in systems, epistemic uncertainty stems from our limited understanding of the underlying mechanisms or parameters que governam esses sistemas.
Essa forma de incerteza pode ocorrer em vários campos, como science, engineering, economics, and inteligência artificial. For instance, in AI, epistemic uncertainty may arise when a model encounters scenarios it has not been trained on, leading to uncertainty in its predictions or decisions.
Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced through additional research, data collection, or refining models. For example, if a aprendizado de máquina model is trained on a limited dataset, its predictions may be uncertain in areas where it lacks data. By gathering more comprehensive data or improving the model’s architecture, we can mitigate this uncertainty.
In practice, understanding and addressing epistemic uncertainty is crucial for making informed decisions, as it highlights the need for more data or better models to enhance our confidence in predictions. Techniques such as Inferência Bayesiana are often employed to quantify and manage epistemic uncertainty, allowing practitioners to update their beliefs as new information becomes available.